Athena characterizes wildfire risk through a 5-class index from Very Low to Very High. The index classes and associated colors are listed here are for the Combined Risk Class.
Conditional and Probability Combined Risk Classifications
The 5-class index is the same as the Combined Risk Class from Very Low to Very High. However, the colors are slightly different than the Combined Risk Class.
What Goes into Conditional Risk Classes?
Athena’s Conditional Risk Classes describe a location’s potential to “host a wildfire”, should an ignition event occur locally. A location’s potential to burn is measured through a composite score that combines several wildfire related layers of data and indexes, as well as several derivative indexes created by Athena through its analytical processes. The unique values and scores from each layer are combined into a single value, becoming a location’s unique conditional profile.
Below are the Core layers utilized in Athena’s Conditional Risk Classifications. Each layer of data within Athena’s model has its unique index values and classes as determined by the US Census Bureau, and the USDA, US Forest Service through research conducted at the Rocky Mountain Research Station.
Conditional Risk Flags Exclusive to Athena, Conditional Risk Flags are a series of flags that indicate when specific risks have exceeded certain levels and parameters. The levels and parameters are unique to each data layer and established through the research conducted by creators of the data. Athena’s spatial processing and algorithms contain “triggers” that highlight where specific risk levels have been exceeded.
Athena provides comprehensive wildfire risk assessments for all locations, structures, and fixed assets in the states it has fingerprinted.
This in-depth analysis serves as the foundation for evaluating property-specific risks. This detailed information is then aggregated into census blocks, offering a cost-effective solution tailored for utilities and municipalities.
Census blocks, being the smallest and consistently defined geographical units, are essential for facilitating artificial intelligence analysis. The use of census blocks allows machine learning, based on millions of data points.
Using the pixels, as opposed to Census blocs, leads to potential computing slowdowns that arise when handling hundreds of millions of data points, as the AI seeks to identify meaningful patterns in the data.
Athena’s Voice of the Acre® is a conditional, geospatial, artificial intelligence/machine learning tool for use by utilities, insurers, municipalities, and government entities.
Based on Wildfire Risk to Communities: Spatial datasets of landscape-wide wildfire risk components for the United States. Forest Service Research Data Archive. Updated 25 November 2020. (Scott, Joe H.; Gilbertson-Day, Julie W.; Moran, Christopher; Dillon, Gregory K.; Short, Karen C.; Vogler, Kevin C. 2020.)
What goes into Athena's Probability Risk Scores?
Separate from locations, Conditional Risk profiles are cross-referenced with historical wildfire data to calculate the likelihood of a given Conditional Profile being affected by a wildfire. This information provides a Probability Risk.
The Conditional Risk profile includes all factors within a multi-mile radius which impact a location's ability to host a fire. Athena’s Probability Risk Scores describe areas where Conditional Risk profiles indicate a likelihood of hosting a wildfire given the profile’s involvement with historical wildfires and its geospatial relationship with other conditional risk profiles in the surrounding area.
Thus, even if there has not been a fire in this area, as conditions change the Probability Risk may change. Using the Conditional Risk as the driver of the probability classification allows Athena to quantify the likelihood of a location’s risk of wildfire more accurately, regardless of the local history with wildfires.
Thus, Probability Risk provides a more accurate representation of risk since changes to the Conditional Risk profiles can be measured, allowing shifting probabilities within a local area. The Combination of Conditional Risk Profiles and Probability Risk Scores is the most accurate tool for assessing wildfire risk because the Voice of the Acre® tells the story of the landscape.
